SMM AI Stack for the metals complex

Recent aluminium price — review & drivers

I. Recap: a push higher, then an accelerating slide

Since early April 2026, SMM A00 aluminium has traced a rise-then-fall path, with the decline accelerating from late June.

Phase 1 (early to mid-Apr): topping out at the highs

Low overseas inventories and restocking hopes into the domestic peak season lifted prices to the year’s highs; sentiment stayed constructive.

Phase 2 (late Apr to mid-Jun): pull-back and range trade

Peak-season demand disappointed and billet conversion margins softened; prices eased off the highs into a sideways range.

Phase 3 (from late Jun): accelerating downside

A softer macro tone, restarts of domestic smelting capacity and an open import window loosened supply at the margin, and prices fell faster.

II. What’s driving it

Supply: restarts in Yunnan and elsewhere lifted running capacity; an intermittently profitable import window added supply.

Cost: falling alumina prices pulled the all-in smelting cost lower, weakening cost support.

Demand: property and PV-module schedules softened; downstream operating rates eased seasonally and destocking slowed.

Macro: choppy USD and rate expectations trimmed risk appetite and weighed on base-metals valuations.

III. What to watch

The turn in domestic visible inventory, the alumina cost line, and whether peak-season (Sep–Oct) demand can restore an upside driver.

Source: SMM spot quotes and fundamentals series · ai.metal.com